AUD/NZD looking to build a floor after dovish RBA rate hike guts Aussie

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  • The Aussie backslid into a 12-day low against the Kiwi after the RBA delivered a dovish rate hike.
  • The RBA hiked reference rates 25 basis points, but struck a notably dovish tone.
  • RBA sees higher-for-longer inflation pressure, but household consumption to remain weak.

The AUD/NZD belly-flopped into a new November low of 1.0820 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a dovish rate hike, lifting the Australian central bank's reference rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%. The Aussie (AUD) fell 0.75% against the Kiwi (NZD) on reaction, and the pair is struggling back into the 1.0850 region.

The RBA noted that, despite the need for an additional rate hike in the face of still-high inflation risks, household consumption remains incredibly weak, and continued rate hikes could threaten to destabilize the Aussie economy as the growth outlook remains uncertain.

RBA hikes interest rate to a 12-year high of 4.35% in November

Next up on the economic calendar will be Wednesday's Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Inflation Expectations for the fourth quarter, which last printed at 2.83%.

Early Thursday will see Aussie Consumer Inflation Expectations for November, which last printed at 4.8% for October, with late Thursday seeing the Business NZ's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October, which last showed a sub-50.0 printing of 45.3, implying that business expectations remain tepid.

AUD/NZD Technical Outlook

The AUD/NZD continues to see consolidation plays on the chart paper, with the pair cycling closely to the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for six straight months, and Tuesday's RBA-fueled Aussie dump sees the AUD/NZD testing back into the major moving average, which has gone sideways with a lack of notable long-term trend just north of 1.0800.

A set of both higher highs and lower lows sees the technical charts set for a breakout as whipsaw action gives way to increasing volatility, but traders will want to keep an eye out for any false breaks of the topside barrier at 1.0950 or near 1.0625 down below.

AUD/NZD Daily Chart

AUD/NZD Technical Levels

AUD/NZD

Overview
Today last price 1.0846
Today Daily Change -0.0035
Today Daily Change % -0.32
Today daily open 1.0881
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1.0817
Daily SMA50 1.0811
Daily SMA100 1.082
Daily SMA200 1.0819
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1.0891
Previous Daily Low 1.0854
Previous Weekly High 1.0944
Previous Weekly Low 1.0854
Previous Monthly High 1.093
Previous Monthly Low 1.0624
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0877
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0868
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.086
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0838
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0823
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0897
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0913
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0934

 

 

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