WTI looking to keep afloat above $74.00 as Crude Oil tries to shake off continuing supply buildup

• Crude Oil production continues to outpace demand, fourth quarter's steep drawdowns fail to materialize.
• WTI still pinned near $74.00 per barrel as energies keep aloft on buoyed risk appetite.
• Crude prices finding support in geopolitical tensions following Red Sea attacks.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is struggling to develop topside momentum even as Crude Oil supply lines see a slight constraint after several firms have temporarily suspended sending Crude oil shipments through the Red Sea shipping lane after several vessels were attacked by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Houthi rebels have vowed to keep up the pace of their attacks on civilian shipping vessels that pass through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a vital shipping lane that delivers Crude Oil and goods between Asia and Europe.

A joint security operation is scrambling to stabilize the Red Sea region, with combined forces from the US, Canada, France, Spain, Norway, and Bahrain set to descend upon the critical shipping region to quell rebel attacks.

Even with rebel attacks on tankers sending jitters through energies markets, the upside remains frustratingly elusive for Crude Oil prices, with WTI managing to hold onto the $74.00 handle but little more as crude barrel reserves continue to build up at a much faster pace than oil traders had predicated earlier in the year.

Ongoing production caps and restrictive barrel exporting quotas from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are doing little to send Crude Oil prices higher as global demand for fossil fuels slumps below an achievable level for OPEC to structural combat, and crude barrel reserves continue to chalk in increases despite near-term contractions in week-on-week barrel counts.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), API-counted barrels in the US remain well-stocked, adding 939K barrels for the week ending December 15 to the current count despite last week's 2.349 million barrel decline. The API reports that overall crude inventories have climbed a little over 18 million barrels so far in 2023, snubbing market analyst expectations of an additional decline of 2.233 million barrels for the week.

The US Department of Energy (DoE) reported on Monday that barrel counts within the Strategic Petroleum Reserve had climbed by 600K barrels, and Crude Oil markets will be looking ahead to Wednesday's Energy Information Administration's (EIA) crude reserve count figures.

EIA Crude Oil stocks printed a 4.259 million barrel drawdown in Crude supplies last week, and fossil bidders will be looking for the EIA's crude barrel counts to show an additional 2.233 million count decline.

WTI Technical Outlook

WTI US Crude Oil has closed flat or in the green for the last five consecutive trading days, rising nearly 10% from December's plunge into $67.97 per barrel. Despite the recent rebound, Crude Oil bidding remains tepid, down on the year and trading on the south side of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the $77.50 price level.

Crude Oil remains firmly down from the last swing high that knocked on the door to the 95.00 major handle, and downside momentum sees the 50-day SMA primed for a bearish crossover with the long-run 200-day SMA.

WTI Daily Chart

WTI Technical Levels