GBP/USD slips as Fed Chair Powell disregards March rate cut

• GBP/USD sees a downturn, trading between 1.2660 and 1.2690, after Fed maintains rates and Chair Powell downplays immediate rate cut prospects.
• Powell's remarks indicate rate cuts depend on economic conditions, with no immediate plans for reduction, adding pressure on the Pound.
• The Fed's unanimous decision to hold rates steady and focus on inflation targets influences currency markets, with mixed responses in Treasury yields and the Dollar Index.

The GBP/USD extended its losses late in the North American session, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep rates unchanged, while Fed Chair Powell poured cold water on rate cut speculations for March. At the time of writing, the major trades were volatile, around 1.2660 – 1.2690, as Fed Chair Powell is taking the stance

Fed Chair Powell comments

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that policy rates have likely reached their peak, suggesting the possibility of rate reductions within the year. However, he emphasized that any decision on rate cuts would be contingent on the progression of the economy. Powell highlighted the ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook and clarified that decisions on monetary policy would be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

He also mentioned that the topic of rate cuts was not a subject of discussion in the recent meeting, indicating that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to declare success in its battle against inflation. Additionally, Powell recently expressed his view that a rate cut in March is unlikely to be considered.

Summary of the Fed’s monetary policy statement

During their monetary policy meeting, Federal Reserve officials unanimously agreed to maintain interest rates as they currently are. They emphasized the need to wait for greater assurance that inflation is steadily moving towards the 2% target before considering any rate reductions. The Fed also noted that the prospects of meeting their dual mandate are improving and stressed their ongoing vigilance concerning inflation risks.

As for the balance sheet reduction, the plan will continue as previously outlined, coupled with stricter controls on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confidential information for all Fed staff with access to it.

Following this announcement, rate cut expectations for the March meeting are at 50% odds vs. May. The US 10-year Treasury note yield briefly surged to 4% before settling back to around 3.97%. Concurrently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) initially moved towards 103.50 but then slightly retreated to 103.35.

GBP/USD Reaction to Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell remarks

The GBP/USD spiked towards 1.2730 before aiming lower as US Treasury bond yields advanced, followed by the Greenback (USD). Once it cleared the 1.2700 figure, it exposed the 50-day moving average (DMA) at 1.2668, followed by the 1.2600 mark. On the upside, the first resistance would be 1.2700, followed by the day’s high at 1.2750 before 1.2800.