USD/CAD extends upside to near 1.3950, Fed rate decision in focus
- USD/CAD gains momentum to around 1.3940 in Thursday’s early Asian session.
- The victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the US presidential election lifts the Greenback.
- BoC officials worried that the jumbo rate cut would be a sign of economic trouble.
The USD/CAD pair extends the rally to near 1.3940 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD) broadly after Republican candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election. All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Thursday.
The Greenback edges higher as investors bet that lower taxes and raising tariffs will push up inflation and reduce the pace of interest rate cuts as Trump was elected US president. Later on Thursday, attention will shift to the Fed monetary policy meeting. The US central bank is widely anticipated to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its meeting ending on Thursday. However, traders have begun to trim bets for a reduction in December and the number of rate cuts expected next year, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
On the Loonie front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps at its October meeting, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%. A summary of the BoC deliberations showed worry among some officials that an oversized step of a rate cut would spark fears that a steeper economic contraction may be coming. However, the BoC officials stated the markets should not necessarily expect half-point cuts at every meeting going forward as future decisions would be guided by incoming data.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.