WTI Price Forecast: WTI stalls below $63, pressured by oversupply risks and weak fuel demand
- WTI crude oil retreats on Wednesday, trading near $62.05 after failing to hold above $63.00
- US data show that crude inventories fell, but gasoline and diesel stocks rose, raising concerns about demand.
- The technical range between $60 and $63 remains intact, with $65 acting as a key level of resistance.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices retreat on Wednesday after two straight days of gains. At the time of writing, WTI is hovering above the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), down nearly 1.5% from the intraday high of $63.31, and trading around $62.41 during the American session.
The pullback follows fresh US inventory data that raised some red flags for the oil market. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a larger-than-expected build in gasoline and diesel stockpiles, which overshadowed a solid 4.3 million barrel draw in crude inventories last week. That imbalance is fueling concerns about weakening fuel demand. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has hinted at a potential push for a significant production increase, as OPEC+ continues to gradually ramp up output, while global trade tensions add another layer of uncertainty to the demand outlook.
From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows that WTI remains confined within a well-defined range between $60.00 and $63.00, with neither bulls nor bears showing enough conviction to break out decisively. The $63.00 level continues to act as near-term resistance, having capped multiple upside attempts since mid-May. Meanwhile, support near $60.00 has consistently attracted dip-buying, making it a critical zone to watch for any bearish breakdowns. The $65.00 mark, just above the range, acts as a structural barrier, a former support-turned-resistance level now reinforced by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 65.08.
The 21-day EMA, currently sitting around $61.51, has flattened out and now acts more like a neutral pivot than a trend guide. Unless WTI can post a decisive daily close above $65, the broader outlook remains neutral. A break above would open the door toward $68 and $70, while a close below $60 would likely trigger bearish bets, exposing downside targets near $58 and $55, especially if accompanied by bearish macro cues.
Momentum signals remain mixed, reinforcing the broader theme of indecision. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 52, holding slightly above the neutral 50 mark. While this suggests a mild bullish bias, it's not strong enough to indicate a trend shift on its own. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has recently shown a bullish crossover, with the MACD line just nudging above the signal line. However, both lines remain close to the zero axis, which reflects a lack of conviction and limited follow-through from either side. Until momentum builds, WTI is likely to remain rangebound.
