AUD/USD stays depressed below 0.6700 as RBA hawks retreat, risk dwindles
- AUD/USD holds lower grounds amid cautious markets, receding hawkish bias for RBA.
- China’s Premier sounds hopeful of upbeat growth but Sino-American woes cross the optimism.
- NAB cuts RBA rate forecasts after downbeat inflation, Retail Sales.
- Fed hawks also wait for more clues to confirm further hawkish moves and put a floor under the Aussie price.
AUD/USD fades bounce off intraday low even as Chinese Premier tries to lure the bulls during early Thursday. The reason could be linked to the fresh Sino-American tension over Taiwan and the recently dovish concerns about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next moves. That said, the Aussie pair drops to 0.6670 during the two-day downtrend by the press time.
China's Premier Li Qiang recently said that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. The policymaker, however, also raised geopolitical tension by opposing trade protectionism and decoupling, which indirectly targets the US.
Elsewhere, the National Australia Bank (NAB) cut its forecast for the RBA peak rate to 3.85% from 4.15% after witnessing the recent fall in inflation and Retail Sales figures. The NAB also expects a 0.25% rate hike in April. It should be noted that Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) all of them expect a pause in the RBA’s rate hike trajectory after April’s 25 basis points (bps) of a lift in the benchmark rates.
It should be noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s teasing of one more rate hike joined Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr’s emphasis on data dependency to allow the US Dollar to remain firmer. On the same line could be Fed Chair Powell’s push for alteration in deposit insurance. As a result, the Fed hawks do flex their muscles but wait for more clues and amplify the market’s anxiety ahead of Friday’s key inflation gauge from the US, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index.
Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures struggle around a one-week high marked the previous day, while ignoring Wall Street’s upbeat performance, whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields grind higher after teasing the bond buyers the previous day.
It’s worth mentioning that Australia’s Job Vacancies improved in February, to -1.5% QoQ versus -4.9% prior while the US Pending Home Sales grew 0.8% MoM during the said month versus -3.0% expected and 8.1% prior.
Looking ahead, preliminary readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) and the final numbers for the US Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be important to watch for the AUD/USD pair traders for intraday directions.
Also read: US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed?
Technical analysis
AUD/USD grinds lower between 200-DMA and a three-week-old ascending support line, respectively near 0.6755 and 0.6650.