USD/JPY remains depressed near 146.00, eyes US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus
- USD/JPY meets with a fresh supply on Thursday and is weighed down by a weaker USD.
- Expectations that the Fed will pause in September keep the USD bulls on the defensive.
- The Fed-BoJ policy divergence helps limit losses ahead of the key US PCE Price Index.
The USD/JPY pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's bounce from the 145.55 area or the weekly low and comes under some renewed selling pressure during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade just above the 146.00 round figure, down over 0.10% for the day, and could slide further in the wake of a weaker tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD).
In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, remains on the defensive near a two-week low touched in the aftermath of disappointing US macro data released on Wednesday. A report published by Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed that Private sector employment in the US rose by 177K in August against the 195K anticipated and the previous month's downwardly revised reading of 324K. Adding to this, the US 2 GDP growth was revised down to 2.1% annualized rate from the 2.4% estimated originallly and reainforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-hiking cycle in September.
This, in turn, led to the overnight sharp fall in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to undermine the buck, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the USD/JPY pair. The markets, however, are still pricing in the possibility of one more 25 bps Fed rate hike move by the end of this year. In contrast, the BoJ is expected to stick to its ultra-lose monetary policy settings. This, in turn, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the major. It is worth recalling that BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda had said last week that the underlying inflation in Japan remains a bit below the 2% target, ensuring that the central bank may keep the status quo until next summer.
Meanwhile, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported that Industrial Production fell by 2.0% MoM in July as compared to market expectations a 1.4% decline and a 2.4% rise in the previous month. The disappointment, however, was largely offset by the better-than-expected release of Japanese Retail Sales data, which grew by 6.8% YoY rate in July, up from 5.6% previous. The data does little to provide any impetus to the USD/JPY pair as the market focus remains glued to the release of the US Core PCE Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – and the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, due later during the early North American session.
Technical levels to watch